IATA: March passenger demand growth slows on later Easter holiday

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for March 2019 showing that demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, or RPKs) rose 3.1%, compared to the same month a year ago, which was the slowest pace for any month in nine years.

This largely was owing to the timing of the Easter holiday, which fell nearly a month later than in 2018. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the underlying growth rate has been relatively steady since October 2018 at a 4.1% annualized pace. Capacity (available seat kilometers or ASKs) for the month of March grew 4.2% and load factor dropped 0.9 percentage point to 81.7%.

“While traffic growth slowed considerably in March, we do not see the month as a bellwether for the rest of 2019. Nevertheless, the economic backdrop has become somewhat less favorable, with the IMF having recently revised its GDP outlook downward for a fourth time in the past year,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

MARCH 2019 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) WORLD SHARE1 RPK ASK PLF (%-PT)2 PLF (LEVEL)3
Total Market 100.0% 3.1% 4.2% -0.9% 81.7%
Africa 2.1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.4% 72.0%
Asia Pacific 34.4% 1.9% 3.5% -1.3% 81.2%
Europe 26.7% 4.9% 5.4% -0.4% 83.7%
Latin America 5.1% 5.6% 5.1% 0.3% 81.5%
Middle East 9.2% -3.0% 2.1% -3.9% 73.9%
North America 22.5% 4.9% 5.0% -0.1% 85.0%


International Passenger Markets

March international passenger demand rose just 2.5% compared to March 2018, which was down from 4.5% year-over-year growth recorded in February and almost 5 percentage points below its five-year average pace. All regions showed growth with the exception of the Middle East. Total capacity climbed 4.0%, and load factor fell 1.2 percentage points to 80.8%.

  •  European carriers saw March demand increase 4.7% over March 2018, down from 7.5% annual growth in February. The result partly reflects falling business confidence in the Eurozone and ongoing uncertainty about Brexit. March capacity rose 5.4% and load factor slid 0.6 percentage point to 84.2%, which still was the highest among regions.
  •  Asia-Pacific airlines’ traffic climbed 2.0% in March, compared to the year-ago period, which was down from 4% growth in February. However, results were stronger on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Capacity increased 4.0%, and load factor dropped 1.6 percentage points to 80.1%.
  •  Middle East carriers’ passenger demand fell 3.0% in March, marking a second consecutive month of declining traffic. This reflects the broader structural changes in the industry which have been taking place in the region. Capacity increased 2.3%, and load factor plunged 4.0 percentage points to 73.8%.
  •  North American airlines posted a 3.0% traffic rise in March compared to the year-ago period, which was down somewhat from 4.2% year-on-year growth in February. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, traffic has been trending strongly upwards, however. Capacity climbed 2.6% and load factor edged up 0.3 percentage point to 83.7%.
  •  Latin American airlines had the fastest traffic growth at 5.5%, compared to a year ago, up from 4.6% in February. March capacity rose 5.8%, and load factor dipped 0.2 percentage point to 81.9%. Latin America was the only region to show an increase in the year-on-year growth rate for March compared to February. In seasonally-adjusted terms traffic continues to trend upward sharply, notwithstanding economic and political uncertainty in some key countries.
  •  African airlines’ demand increased 2.1% compared to March 2018, down from a 2.5% rise in February. Capacity climbed 1.1%, and load factor strengthened 0.7 percentage point to 71.4%. The upward traffic trend has softened since mid-2018 in line with falling business confidence in some of the region’s key economies.

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic demand rose 4.1% in March, which was a deceleration from 6.2% growth recorded in February that was driven largely by developments in China and India. Domestic capacity climbed 4.5%, and load factor dipped 0.3 percentage point to 83.4%.

MARCH 2019 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) WORLD SHARE1 RPK ASK PLF (%-PT)2 PLF (LEVEL)3
Domestic 36.0% 4.1% 4.5% -0.3% 83.4%
Dom. Australia 0.9% -3.2% -2.1% -0.9% 79.3%
Domestic Brazil 1.1% 3.2% 2.1%
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