Antalya may fail to meet its ambitious goal of attracting 18 million visitors in 2025, as prolonged geopolitical tensions continue to negatively affect travel demand in the Eastern Mediterranean region.
Although the destination welcomed 7.5 million tourists during the first six and a half months of 2025 — a figure considered a key mid-season milestone — the numbers still fall short of initial expectations.
Kaan Kavalo?lu, President of the Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers Association (AKTOB), acknowledged that the 18-million target was optimistic from the outset, given the ongoing crises in the region.
“We had hoped the Russia-Ukraine war would end, but its continuation — combined with tensions between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict — has negatively impacted tourism,” he stated.
Support from the Turkish Diaspora Helps Maintain Stability
As of July 16, Antalya had reached last year’s visitor levels, largely thanks to steady domestic demand and the influx of Turks living abroad, who return each summer for vacation. According to Kavalo?lu, these two factors are key to keeping the season on stable footing.
Despite slight declines in tourist numbers from Russia and Germany, growth was recorded from markets such as the United Kingdom and Poland, especially in June. Tourism authorities now see market diversification as a critical strategy for maintaining the resilience of Turkey’s tourism product.
July and August Will Be Crucial
Tourism businesses in the region are now focusing on July and August, the peak months of the season, from which they expect 5.6 million visitors in total. If this target is met, the year could end with over 17 million tourists, approaching last year’s levels, Kavalo?lu noted.
“If we reach that number, this year won’t lag far behind 2024 — it may even surpass it in terms of arrivals,” he estimated.
He also expressed hope that the season could extend through late November, if weather conditions remain favorable.
“I believe September and October will perform well. Even if we don’t hit 18 million, we won’t fall below last year’s figures,” he added.
Cautious Optimism Amid Uncertainty
Kavalo?lu’s remarks reflect a mood of cautious optimism in Antalya’s tourism sector. Industry professionals are aware that external events can shift the balance at any time, but they are relying on the trust the destination has built in key markets.
It is worth noting that Antalya is Turkey’s second most popular destination in terms of tourist arrivals, after Istanbul, and a flagship location for the country’s summer “sun-and-sea” tourism. As such, its performance is seen as a barometer for the national tourism industry, which explains the high level of interest in its seasonal outlook.
