Giannis Retsos, president of the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) and former president of the Greek Tourism Confederation (SETE), expressed concern that 2026 might be the first year Greece sees a decline in tourism revenues after many years of growth, excluding the COVID period. He shared this forecast during the presentation of IOBE’s quarterly report on the Greek economy.
“Tourism Has Hit a Ceiling”
Retsos noted that, after nearly a decade of strong growth, Greek tourism may have reached its peak, and the environment is becoming increasingly competitive—especially across the Mediterranean. He emphasized that better-prepared destinations will have the upper hand going forward.
“It would be fortunate if this year (2025) matches last year’s revenue,” he said, stressing that maintaining current levels would already be a success.
Why 2026 Might See a Drop
He attributed the projected decline in 2026 to two main factors:
Income pressure in key European source markets, reducing their ability to spend on holidays.
Negative sentiment in the U.S. market, fueled by Trump-era political narratives and growing geopolitical instability in the region.
Need for Strategy and Investment
Retsos warned that Greece lacks a long-term strategy for tourism. He urged:
Targeted infrastructure investment
Destination upgrades
Competitive pricing with strong value-for-money
“Even Greece’s advantage in value-for-money is now seriously being questioned,” he added.
Key Takeaways from the IOBE Tourism Report
Positive performance expected in real terms for 2025 and 2026, but risks remain.
Turnover growth in Q1 2025:
Accommodation: +16.8%
Food services: +1.2%
Tourism is the only sector in Greece where employment in medium-sized businesses surpasses small ones, unlike the EU average—highlighting better economies of scale in this industry.
In GDP terms, total tourism spending contributed €5 billion in 2023, accounting for 2.2% of national GDP.
In employment, an estimated 157,000 jobs were supported by tourism spending in 2023—3.1% of total national employment.
