The Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) and the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC) have issued a briefing on the evolving refugee/migration crisis in Europe in which they note the following:
THE EVOLVING REFUGEE/MIGRATION CRISIS MAY BECOME AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT FOR
AN EU ALREADY WEAKENED BY THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, AND FACING THE PROSPECT OF A
BREXIT. THE EU IS DIVIDED BETWEEN A GERMANY-LED GROUP SUPPORTING A EUROPEAN
SOLUTION TO THE REFUGEE PROBLEM AND THE VISEGRAD GROUP AND LIKE-MINDED
COUNTRIES, AND FAR-RIGHT POLITICAL PARTIES ACROSS EUROPE ARE GAINING TRACTION
BY ARGUING IN FAVOR OF A EUROPE-FORTRESS MENTALITY. THE VISEGRAD GROUP IS
UNOFFICIALLY LED BY HUNGARY’S PRIME MINISTER VIKTOR ORBAN, A KNOWN PUTIN
ADMIRER.
THERE IS SPECULATION THAT A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES/ACTORS MAY BE USING THE
SYRIA/IRAQ REFUGEE CRISIS TO PUT PRESSURE ON EUROPE AND DEMAND CONCESSIONS
ON VARIOUS ISSUES SUCH AS UKRAINE, THE KURDISH QUESTION OR THE DAY AFTER IN
SYRIA.
A WEAKENED EUROPE IS NOT IN THE INTEREST OF THE US, NEITHER IS A DESTABILIZED
GREECE, AN OUTCOME THE US HAVE BEING TRYING TO PREVENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE
FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE DEBATE ABOUT A GREXIT.
Greece should fulfill its commitments regarding hotspots and full registration of all
incoming refugees/migrants (with the provision of European economic support, as
well as manpower and equipment). At the same time, it should be crystal clear to all
that maritime borders cannot be fully protected without the cooperation of the ‘other
country’ or without the use of force. “Push back” policies applied on small rubber
boats filled well beyond capacity will only result to an increase of the number of
people drowning in the Aegean. Such policies would be both inhuman and illegal
under international law. Nor can Greece become a prison for several hundred
thousand irregular migrants, as recently suggested by a senior government official of
one of the founding members of the EU.
Refugees and migrants do not want to stay in Greece because the country has little to
offer in terms of employment and social benefits. Many of them may temporarily stay
in detention centers, but eventually they will grow impatient and desperate and
border fences will not prevent desperate people from trying (and eventually
succeeding) to cross. Furthermore, the fence between Greece and the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) only covers a tiny portion of the border.
Human traffickers are in high demand among the refugees, and these traffickers have
great incentive as the price refugees are willing to pay keeps increasing. The
authorities of Balkan countries will be faced with increasing numbers of refugees –
alone or in small groups- crossing their countries. Alternatives to the “Balkan Route”
may still open: through Albania or Bulgaria for example.
Eventually, sufficient permanent facilities will be built for around 30-50,000 people in
Greece. This is most likely the minimum number of people that will stay in the
country, either in the context of a pan-European relocation agreement, or by
necessity. This analysis is based on the working hypothesis that there will be an
agreement, sooner or later, on the negotiations between the EU and Turkey (and
among EU member states themselves). If this doesn’t happen, then the situation will
quickly become almost unmanageable for Greece. But we are not there yet.
AS THERE IS NO MAGIC BULLET TO DEAL WITH THE REFUGEE CRISIS, AN EFFECTIVE
MANAGEMENT POLICY SHOULD HAVE THE FOLLOWING EIGHT COMPONENTS:
1. A diplomatic initiative that minimizes, if not ends, the fighting in Syria as
soon as possible;
2. Greater financial support to neighboring countries (Jordan, Lebanon,
Turkey) so they can manage their refugee populations better;
3. Incentives to Turkey to limit the refugee flows and accept return of
refugees/migrants;
4. More efficient protection of the EU’s external borders;
5. Implementation of re-allocation decisions among all EU member states;
6. Provision of humanitarian assistance to Greece;
7. More pressure on countries of origin to accept the repatriation of larger
numbers of economic migrants;
8. Effective integration policies in European countries.
WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO?
1. Apply some pressure on the Visegrad countries, some of which the US has
historically had influence over (Poland, for example) to stop blocking
efforts for a European solution on the crisis.
2. Press Turkey for tangible and public cooperation. The EU/Turkey deal
under consideration by the EU is providing incentives for Ankara to
cooperate. Turkey should clamp down on traffickers and suspend its
visa-free regime for Moroccans and some other nationalities. But the key
element would be the establishment of hotspots on Turkish soil, for
direct resettlement of refugees in various EU countries. That would
alleviate the pressure on Greece and also save many lives in the Aegean.
3. Encourage the creation of a European Coastguard, with extensive
jurisdiction, and better coordination between security and information
agencies (also promoted by the establishment of the European Counter
Terrorism Centre), but also with neighboring countries, especially in the
South, should make an important contribution. NATO could make a
modest contribution, provided Turkey allows the Alliance to patrol the
whole Aegean. Also, Greece would need assistance (training,
equipment) to deal with jihadists trying to cross through or operate in
Greece and to properly register asylum seekers and migrants.
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