New analysis by Capital Economics shows that the increase in the number of adults with children is contributing to the gradual strengthening of off-peak vacations. Travelers without family commitments take advantage of lower prices and choose to travel during periods with less demand, limiting costs and avoiding crowds.
According to the research, tourists do not change destinations, but mainly the time of their trips. Despite discussions about overcrowding and heat waves that could deter visitors, southern European countries continue to record faster tourism growth compared to northern ones.
Capital Economics points out that the growth in overnight stays in the eurozone is clearly stronger during the off-peak period. This is due to:
the decrease in adults with children, which reduces the restriction of school holidays,
the increase in the percentage of the population in early retirement, with time, financial capacity and mobility,
the sharp increases in accommodation prices in the summer season, which strengthen the incentive to shift to cheaper months.
At the same time, the discussion around the phenomenon of overtourism also seems to push some travelers to quieter periods.
The study highlights that smoothing seasonality could have significant macroeconomic benefits for countries that rely heavily on tourism, such as Greece. Today, strong seasonality leads to high unemployment outside the summer; if arrivals were spread more evenly throughout the year, average unemployment would decrease and infrastructure such as hotels and airports would become more efficient, without the need for further expansion of peak capacity.
Capital Economics acknowledges that the climate crisis and the more frequent occurrence of heat waves and natural disasters in southern Europe may lead to a long-term reallocation of tourism demand towards the North. However, there is no clear evidence of such a shift so far. In contrast, after the pandemic, overnight stays in countries such as Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are growing at a faster rate than in northern markets (Austria, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium).
The conclusion of the study is that, for now, Southern Europe maintains the lead, but extending the tourist season and balancing demand throughout the year are the real key to the sustainable growth of the sector.
