The 6 interrelated forces that will shape how Europe’s tourism sector will evolve over the next decade are identified in a new report by the European Travel Commission (ETC), entitled “Future-proofing European Tourism through Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight”.
The study introduces strategic foresight – specifically scenario planning – as a practical method for anticipating disruptions. While it does not predict the future, it allows for the exploration of multiple possible outcomes and the design of strategies that remain robust under different circumstances.
The forces that will shape tourism by 2035 are…
Climate change | Increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather conditions are reshaping seasonality, increasing costs and disrupting operations.
Fear of (rapid) change | Rapid technological and socio-cultural shifts are creating instability and uncertainty.
Governance and regulation at European level | Stronger coordination at European level is crucial to address the multiple challenges.
The rise and evolution of the global middle class | The ageing of the European population and the growing demand from the younger middle classes abroad are reshaping visitor flows.
Shifting demand between generations | Younger travellers are increasingly looking for sustainable, flexible and authentic experiences, transforming offers through hybrid travel, digitalisation and new cultural forms.
Challenges in work and skills | Shortages and mismatches limit the sector’s ability to innovate and adapt.
Of these forces, European governance and intergenerational shifts in demand are highlighted as the main uncertainties that could lead to a very different tourism future.
In contrast, climate change and the rise of the global middle class are seen as fixed realities that will impact tourism in any scenario.
Meanwhile, fear of rapid change and challenges in work and skills act as linked forces, shaping how these uncertainties unfold and amplifying their impact.
Four possible future scenarios for European tourism
Based on input from multidisciplinary experts and analysis by the European Institute for Tourism Futures, the study outlines four exploratory scenarios for 2035 and a set of recommended strategic options for National Tourism Organisations.
These scenarios are…
Fragmentation and Intimacy | Weak EU governance and the dominance of global platforms drive mass tourism but erode authenticity, with SMEs struggling to compete.
Coordination and Intimacy | Stronger EU cooperation improves resilience and risk management, but platform dependency and mass market habits persist.
Collaborative Transformation | Inclusive governance, generational shifts and alignment with climate and digital agendas encourage regenerative, participatory tourism.
Uneven Transformation | Local communities and SMEs drive innovation, but systemic inequalities remain across the EU without coherence.
Systemic threats, such as weak SMEs, insufficient adaptation to climate change and platform dominance, contrast with opportunities, such as demand from the global middle class, value-based travel and innovation.
