Current geopolitical developments in the Middle East have made it inevitable that they will lead to some disruption to the smooth operation of air transport, as a result of the procedures provided for in the aviation industry in cases of safeguarding the safety of passengers and flight crews.
This is pointed out in an article by the Vice President of Safety of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Nick Careen, seeking to present the complex procedures and security measures followed in the aviation industry in emergency circumstances of conflict to protect civilian flights.
Despite the challenges, the civil aviation industry is making every effort to offer passengers safe travel, recognizing the importance of air connectivity. In 2024, almost 22,000 routes were served, demonstrating the need of people and businesses for travel and face-to-face contacts, which only aviation can facilitate to such a great extent, points out the IATA Vice President of Safety.
However, in order to have safe conditions in air transport, complex processes are required. Specifically, as Mr. Careen states, while risk assessment is objective by nature, the approach to flight management during periods of outbreak or escalation of armed conflicts is multi-layered. In particular…
The first level is the long-standing interstate agreement that civil aircraft should never be the target of military operations. This is enshrined in the Chicago Convention, which is the foundation of international civil aviation.
The second level of protection is the obligation of states to take into account any risks and declare the opening, closing, or restriction of their airspace. This information is widely distributed among governments, airlines, air traffic management service providers, and others through the NOTAM system, or Notices to Airmen. If the airspace is closed or restricted, airlines cannot use it.
The third level is the airline regulator, which may decide, based on its assessment, that airlines operating under its jurisdiction should avoid certain areas or take additional precautions. These restrictions are also communicated to all airlines through NOTAM and other means of direct communication. In many crisis situations, allied states follow the lead of key regulators such as the FAA or EASA.
The fourth level concerns decision-making by air carriers. Airlines are required to apply their own strategic and operational risk assessments. Even if the airspace is clear, airlines must use the information at their disposal to make a final decision on which routes to use. The quality of these decisions depends to a large extent on the quality of the information they receive, and improving this information is the focus of the Safer Skies Consultative Committee initiative, which was established after the downing of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752, with the aim of improving the accuracy of information in this area, particularly that coming from governments.
At the same time, the position of aircraft is constantly monitored in real time, allowing airlines to modify their routes in the event of increased operational risks. Flights have sufficient fuel for such deviations, while both pilots and the relevant authorities can give an order to change course at any time.
There are also internationally established protocols for the redirection of aircraft in cases of conflicts or geopolitical crises. A typical example is the tension between Iran and Israel, where civilian aircraft were forced to bypass the airspace of the region, however, burdening other corridors already hosting diversions due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, international cooperation and planning were required to ensure that there was sufficient capacity to manage the increase in traffic on the affected routes.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), in collaboration with regulatory authorities, air traffic control organizations, and IATA, is responsible for coordinating these complex procedures, ensuring that airlines’ needs are communicated. Despite this coordinated effort, delays and cancellations are inevitable, as shown by Eurocontrol data, which estimates up to 2,000 flight cancellations per day during the summer season due to air network restrictions.
In addition, incidents of interference with satellite navigation systems (GPS) by parties involved in war zones are increasing, without, however, compromising safety, as alternative navigation systems exist and pilots are informed in a timely manner through cooperation between IATA and EASA.
