- The international macroeconomic environment will have a positive impact on Greek tourism in 2025, barring unforeseen developments. However, competitiveness, resilience, sustainability, and adaptation are the necessary conditions for Greek tourism to maintain its strong position in the global tourism market, amidst an unstable and changing international environment.
This conclusion is highlighted by the latest INSETE report “Developments in the global economy and in the countries of origin of incoming tourists to Greece”, according to which the course of GDP and Private Consumption in the main markets of Greek tourism is expected in 2025 to fluctuate – in real terms – at the same or slightly higher levels (around +1%) compared to 2024.
In particular…
A greater increase is expected in the GDP of the USA (around +2%) and mainly in the GDP of the neighboring Balkan countries (around +3%), a development that is estimated to give a boost to inbound tourism.
Inflation in the Eurozone has returned to 2% levels, which will probably lead the ECB to reduce interest rates.
Despite significant geopolitical turmoil, oil product prices, which decisively affect the cost of transportation, remain under control.
The main uncertainties
The main uncertainties regarding international economic developments for the coming period are the policy that the Trump administration will follow, the development of the political crisis in France and Germany and the war in Ukraine. In particular…
- the extent and speed of implementation of the announced macroeconomic and trade policy of the new US administration and their international implications. The further recovery of European economies is affected by these potential “unconventional” policies, to the extent that they concern the EU-20 and especially Germany, either directly or indirectly (e.g. through the devaluation of the Yuan).
- European economies remain vulnerable to the development of the political crisis in France and Germany and their effects on the public finances and development of these countries.
- uncertainty from the war in Ukraine remains.
Europe is cheaper for the US and the UK
For 2 of our 3 most important markets in terms of revenue, the US and the UK, the expected increase in the interest rate differential between the Dollar and the British Pound on the one hand and the Euro on the other, is expected to lead to an appreciation of these two currencies against the Euro, favoring the attraction of tourists from these countries.
On the occasion of the publication of the report, Mr. Elias Kikilias, Director General of INSETE, stated in this regard: “Economic developments in the global economy and especially in the main countries of origin of our visitors have direct impacts on tourism demand. Continuous monitoring of macroeconomic developments and prospects is considered essential for the timely diagnosis of changes and the implementation of corrective actions. Competitiveness, resilience, sustainability, and adaptation are the necessary conditions for Greek tourism to maintain its strong position in the global tourism market, amidst an unstable and changing international environment.”
The outlook for Greek tourism by market
For 2024 as a whole, it is estimated that Greek tourism will record an increase in receipts from international visitors by 5.62% to €21.75 billion, 19.6% higher than in 2019 (€18.18 billion).
For 2025, a new increase in arrivals and receipts from foreign tourism is expected, under the influence of the constantly increasing supply (in quantity and quality) of tourist services from the country and especially if the forecasts for a recovery of the European economy and the prevention of a recession in the global economy are confirmed (as predicted by the IMF, the European Commission and INSETE).
It is noted that the increase in tourist traffic in Greece is to a much greater extent a matter of the supply of suitable and competitive tourist services by the country and to a much lesser extent a matter of demand for tourist services from the countries of origin of the tourists – which is usually very high.
Regarding the developments and prospects in the economies of some of the main markets of inbound tourism in Greece, the following is briefly mentioned:
Euro Zone | Greece received approximately 9.1 billion euros from inbound tourism from Euro Zone countries in 2023 (43% of total revenues, including those from cruises).
Receipts from the Euro Zone in the first 11 months of 2024 amounted to 9.3 billion. euros increased by +3.5% compared to the corresponding eleven months of 2023, while international air arrivals from airports in the Eurozone countries for the whole of 2024 showed an increase of 9.0% compared to 2023.
In 2025, the Eurozone GDP is estimated to increase by 1.2% (IMF: 1.2%), from 0.7% in 2024 (IMF: 0.8%). Private consumption is expected to increase in 2025 by 1.1%, compared to 0.7% in 2024.
Germany | Greece received approximately 3.6 billion euros from inbound tourism from Germany in 2023 (17% of total revenue, including cruises).
Receipts from Germany in the first eleven months of 2024 amounted to 3.6 billion euros, up by +3.5% compared to the corresponding eleven months of 2023, while international air arrivals from German airports for the whole of 2024 showed an increase of 8.8% compared to 2023.
Despite the very large restructuring taking place in Germany in an adverse geopolitical and economic context, its GDP is expected to recover by 0.8% in 2025 (European Commission: 0.7%), compared to a marginal decline of -0.05% in 2024 (IMF: 0.0%). Private consumption is expected to increase in 2025 by 0.7%, compared to 0.2% in 2024.
France | Greece received approximately 1.4 billion euros from inbound tourism from France in 2023 (7% of total revenue, including cruises).
Receipts from France in the first eleven months of 2024 amounted to 1.2 billion euros, down by -11.7% compared to the corresponding eleven months of 2023, while international air arrivals from French airports for the whole of 2024 showed an increase of 5.1% compared to 2023.
France’s GDP is expected to increase in 2025 by 1.0% (IMF 1.1%) compared to 1.2% in 2024 (IMF: 1.1%). Private consumption is expected to increase in 2025 by 1.0%, the same as in 2024.
Italy | Greece received approximately 1.1 billion euros from inbound tourism from Italy in 2023 (5% of total revenue, including cruises).
Receipts from Italy in the first eleven months of 2024 amounted to 1.2 billion euros, up +13% compared to the corresponding eleven months of 2023, while international air arrivals from Italian airports for the whole of 2024 showed an increase of 12.6% compared to 2023.
The expected growth of Italy’s GDP in 2025 is 1.2% (IMF: 0.8%) compared to 0.7% in 2024 (IMF: 0.7%). Private consumption is expected to increase by 1.0% in 2025, compared to 0.3% in 2024.
United Kingdom | Greece received approximately 3.3 billion euros from inbound tourism from the United Kingdom in 2023 (16.7% of total revenue, including cruises).
Receipts from the United Kingdom in the first eleven months of 2024 amounted to 3.1 billion. euros decreased by -3.9% compared to the corresponding eleven months of 2023, while international air arrivals from UK airports for the whole of 2024 showed an increase of 7.2% compared to 2023.
For 2025, the UK GDP is expected to increase by 1.2% in 2025 (IMF: 1.4%), from 0.8% in 2024 (IMF: 1.1%). Private consumption is expected to increase in 2025 by 1.0%, compared to 0.7% in 2024.
USA | Greece received approximately 1.4 billion euros from inbound tourism from the USA in 2023 (7% of the total).
Receipts from the USA in the first eleven months of 2024 amounted to 1.5 billion euros increased by +13.3% compared to the corresponding eleven months of 2023 while international air arrivals from US airports for the whole of 2024 showed an increase of 24.2% compared to 2023.
US GDP is expected to increase further in 2025 by 1.9% (IMF: 2.2%) from 2.8% in 2024 (IMF: 2.8%). Private consumption is expected to increase in 2025 by 2.1%, compared to 2.6% in 2024.
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