American demand for travel to Europe is entering a stabilization phase in 2025, after a two-year period characterized by a continuous “boom” through revenge travel as a reflection of the end of the pandemic.
Although the first indications for the year show a good start, the American market is showing signs of fatigue and reorientation, as recorded by leading European bodies and American tourism professionals.
In a recent webinar of the European Tourism Organization (ETOA), ETOA CEO, Mr. Tom Jenkins, appears convinced that the double-digit growth rates that have been recorded in the last two years in tourist demand from the US to Europe could not be continued indefinitely.
“The market recorded successive ‘booms’, which led to an increase in prices and ultimately to a fatigue in demand,” he notes. The early figures for 2025, such as the decrease in departures to Europe in March, reflect this fatigue,” he observed.
The CEO/Executive Director of the European Travel Commission (ETC), Eduardo Santander, spoke of saturation and replacement of European destinations with others, after the decline in revenge travel, with their choices turning to nearby destinations in Latin America, Japan and domestically.
More specifically, as he said, there is stagnation in bookings for transatlantic flights, lower hotel bookings, lower interest recorded by American tour operators, and a decrease in trip planning activity, which means that Americans are looking for alternative destinations outside of Europe.
March is in negative territory
According to ETOA analyst David Edwards, in 2024, the United States recorded 22 million trips to Europe, recording a 17% increase from 2019, with 41% of all trips abroad involving Europe.
The first data for 2025 show a continuation of the growth trend (+6% in the first quarter), but with signs of slowing down. March saw a 4% decline in air travel from the US to Europe, partly due to the fact that Easter this year fell three weeks later than last year, reducing demand for March.
Factors such as falling consumer confidence, a stronger euro/dollar exchange rate (1 euro = $1.13), and economic uncertainty are adding to this picture. It is certain that the unfavorable dollar/euro situation makes travel to Europe more expensive for Americans. Of course, in an alternative scenario, if tariffs boost US inflation, interest rates could remain high for longer, which could strengthen the dollar, making international travel cheaper for Americans.
At the same time, it is characteristic that consumer confidence in the US in March 2025 was at its lowest level since September 2022.
The slowdown in demand is due not only to the massive increase in demand in 2023 and 2024, which is not sustainable for the future, but also to the increase in the cost of travel. As explained by the vice president of the Youth and Student Travel Association (SYTA), Adele Youngs, this slowdown, which had begun to be felt even before the US elections, is attributed to the increase in prices, which exceeds 25%. For example, the average cost per person for a 7-day educational trip outside the US by flight in 2023 amounted to $ 3,113, while in 2024 this price skyrocketed to $ 4,025. This has implications for future bookings, she noted.
Another factor contributing to the low demand is that Europe is facing operational difficulties, with some of its destinations saturated, high-profile tourist cities encountering problems with the local population, while service quality issues are also being identified, as highlighted by the CEO of ETC.
In this context, Europe should reposition itself in the global tourism market as a valuable and safe destination, she stressed, adding that it should focus on promotional actions and targeted marketing (students, adventure travel, etc.) with an emphasis on new destinations. At the same time, she highlighted the need for synergies between airlines and tour operators and for recording demand in real time, which will enable more flexible marketing packages.
Uncertainty is the new norm in the US market
“Uncertainty is the new norm, but we remain cautiously optimistic for 2025 as the data changes, and in the US on a daily basis,” stressed the CEO of the United States Tour Operators Association, Mr. Terry Dale.
Despite the March slowdown, bookings for travel to Europe in the spring remain strong and there are no serious concerns, while there may be a slight decrease in demand in July and August, but everything remains fluid, Mr. Dale pointed out.
The optimistic thing is that although the volume of bookings may decrease, he noted, the quality of “leads” and “conversions” is higher than last year, as Americans love traveling to Europe and will continue to choose it.
The top factor in destination choice: whether they will be welcomed
Some American travelers, however, express concerns – but not panic – about how they will be treated in Europe, whether they will be safe and whether they will be welcomed.
Indeed, ETOA data shows that their perception of whether they will be welcomed is the top factor in destination choice. Specifically, they prefer a destination that is welcoming to travel (73.7%), easy to get around after arrival (69.9%), allows them to explore history and culture (69.1%), has beautiful coastlines and countryside to explore (69%) and offers good value for money (68.9%).
Bookings move closer to departure
The mood for travel seems to be winning over Americans’ perceptions of choosing a European destination, but many are taking a wait-and-see approach, gathering as much data as they can. According to Rick Steve’s Europe Program Manager, Robyn Stencil, the American market is growing at a slow and steady pace, more manageable than the previous two years, and cancellations are down compared to the same period last year, indicating that those who were going to travel are determined to do so.
A differentiating factor in recent weeks is that the booking window, which used to be 6-7 months before the holiday date, is now 90 days, for trips in the third and fourth quarters of the year. This fact points to a wait-and-see attitude that suggests exploring opportunities for lower fares, or discounts on holiday packages, or greater security.
“The US has lost the game for Canadians to Europe”
In contrast, Canada, in a highly politicized environment, seems to be turning its attention more to Europe and withdrawing interest in travel to the US. “The US seems to have lost the game to Europe,” explains Ms. Youngs.
According to the president of the Canadian Association of Tour Operators, Mr. Brett Walker, in March 2025, compared to the same month in 2024, there was a decrease of more than 30% in Canadian travelers returning from the US and an increase of 9% in those returning from other countries.
He expects a good year, with already very positive bookings, for Europe from the Canadian market, which, however, is one-tenth the size of the US and depends, in terms of purchasing power, on the US dollar and not on the exchange rate with the euro or other currencies.
2026 holds new data that may affect the travel flows of Americans to Europe. Specifically, it will be the year that the US will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, so many will prefer domestic travel, while the FIFA World Cup (June 11 – July 19, 2026) with most matches taking place in American cities, may affect the normal flow of demand for air travel to Europe with a possible impact on fares.
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