As summer heats up on the Adriatic, the port of Split in Croatia is a hive of activity. Hundreds of tourists are flocking to board ships bound for cosmopolitan islands like Vis, with local authorities reporting full ferries and increased tourism. In the first major holiday weekend of 2025 alone, Split airport welcomed 45,000 arrivals, and the port handled 47,000 passengers.
But beneath this vibrant picture, the data reveals a worrying concern: Croatia seems to be losing its image as the “affordable paradise” of the Mediterranean, as arrivals fall and prices rise.
April-May: The first worrying decline
The Croatian government has described June as “promising,” but the first official figures for May are raising doubts. According to the newspaper Jutarnji List, tourist arrivals fell by 5% compared to 2024, while overnight stays fell by 14%. The losses were particularly noticeable in arrivals from important Central European markets such as Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary.
The European Travel Commission (ETC) notes that Germany, which in 2024 accounted for 30% of visitors in May, fell to 16.5% in 2025. Even more worrying is that only two of the 29 European countries monitored by ETC are experiencing a decline in tourist arrivals this year: Croatia and Iceland.
Some local media, such as the index.hr, do not hesitate to predict that Albania may surpass Croatia in the number of visitors, causing new data on the competitive map of tourism in the Mediterranean.
Economic pressure and the “success trap”
The main reason for the decline is considered to be the skyrocketing costs. According to market analysts, the cost of holidays in Croatia has increased by up to 50% in the last three years, well above the 15–20% recorded in competing destinations such as Greece and Spain. The introduction of the euro in 2023 was accompanied by unjustified increases in restaurants and shops, intensifying the sense of punctuality.
Economists, such as Damir Novotny, warn that the imbalance between price and quality of services is unsustainable. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic seems to share the same view, stating: “We are not the only country with the sea and beaches. We must be careful with our prices.”
Already in 2024, domestic consumers had begun to react, calling for a boycott of stores that raised prices without any effect. In 2025, the same trend seems to be spreading to international tourists with a smaller budget.
Can summer “turn the game around”?
Despite the concerns, tourism remains the “blood donor” of the Croatian economy, generating 15 billion euros and 21.7 million visitors in 2024. The months of July and August are decisive for revenues, and the first figures for June show signs of recovery. However, bookings are moving more slowly than expected, with only a third of short-term rental owners having reduced prices.
The Ministry of Tourism says prices have now “stabilized,” but Croatia’s image as a “value-for-money” destination appears to have been eroded. Even if the peak season is deemed a success, questions remain about the country’s long-term trajectory.
A shift to quality or a return to quantity?
The Ministry of Tourism’s strategy has for years included goals for sustainable growth, with an emphasis on quality over numbers. However, when the market shows signs of fatigue, anxiety about filling accommodation and restaurants dominates.
The crucial question is whether the weak May was a temporary hiatus or the beginning of a more upward trajectory. The need to adjust prices to the level of service and maintain the country’s appeal is more urgent than ever.
As ferries continue to ferry tourists to islands like Hvar and Vis, Croatia must prove that it can balance success with restraint. Otherwise, its beautiful beaches may remain less crowded than expected.
