A proposal to increase the minimum wage by 3% from January 2026 was submitted by the Polish government, announcing the macroeconomic parameters that will form the basis for drawing up the state budget for the next year.
Specifically, the minimum wage is expected to increase from approximately 1,093 euros to 1,126 euros, with a corresponding increase in the minimum hourly wage. This proposal will be processed by the Social Dialogue Council before its final implementation.
In comparison with the European Union, Poland’s proposed monthly minimum wage (€1,126 in purchasing power parity terms) is still below the EU average, which according to the latest available Eurostat data for 2024 was around €1,500 per month. Although Poland is on an upward trajectory, it remains at a relatively low level compared to more developed Western European economies, but exceeds Central and Southeastern European countries, such as Hungary or Bulgaria.
Regarding total employment, it is estimated at 11 million people, while registered unemployment is expected to decrease to 4.9% by the end of 2026. The public sector is expected to maintain around 618,900 full-time jobs. It should be noted that Poland usually has the second lowest unemployment rate in the EU, with the Czech Republic traditionally leading.
Meanwhile, since February 2022 and the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory, Poland has been the main destination for millions of refugees from Ukraine. Notably, foreign workers in the country reached 1.07 million at the end of 2022, of which 67% are Ukrainians. This phenomenon is not only a migration crisis, but a determining factor for the course of the Polish economy.
According to a recent study by Deloitte, in cooperation with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the net contribution of Ukrainian refugees to Poland’s GDP in 2024 amounted to 2.7%, or approximately 23 billion euros.
This percentage has increased significantly from the previous 1.5% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, respectively, following the pace of refugee integration into the labor market. Forecasts indicate that by 2030, this contribution could reach 3.2%, provided that the successful integration of refugees into the labor market continues.
In particular, the Polish labor market has rapidly absorbed the refugee workforce, with the employment of Ukrainian refugees increasing from 61% to 69% within a year. Despite the challenges, most refugees secure their income through work.
(*) Information comes from the Office of Economic and Commercial Affairs in Warsaw.
