Greece’s population is estimated to reach approximately 11.5 million by 2050, according to the 2007–2050 population projections under the intermediate – and main – scenario, based on research by ELSTAT. However, the critical factor is not the absolute population size, but the radical shift in the age structure, with population ageing emerging as a decisive challenge for the economy, the labor market, and the welfare state.
At the same time, demographic developments are based on three key components: fertility, mortality, and migration, for which low, high, and intermediate scenarios were developed. The intermediate scenario, used as the primary reference point, depicts a country with increased life expectancy, limited population renewal, and mild net migration.
It should also be emphasized that the total fertility rate is projected to reach 1.66 by 2050, remaining clearly below the replacement level. The increase in births is mainly observed in the 30–34 and 35–39 age groups, while stagnation or a slight decline is recorded among younger ages, reflecting the shift of childbearing to later stages of life.
At the same time, life expectancy continues on a steadily upward trajectory. For men, it rises from 77.09 years in 2006 to over 83 years by 2050 under the intermediate scenario, while for women it approaches 87 years. This trend is reinforced by improvements in health and living conditions, which enhance longevity while simultaneously accelerating population ageing.
Meanwhile, net migration is estimated to be lower compared to the 1990s and the early 2000s. Under the intermediate scenario, a mild decline is projected from current levels of 35,000–40,000 people per year, without, however, offsetting the demographic contraction of younger age groups.
The outcome of these trends is clear: the share of the population aged over 65 increases from 18.5% in 2007 to approximately 32% in 2050, while the working-age population aged 15–64 declines significantly. The corresponding age pyramids depict a Greece with a narrow base and an expanded top, an image that translates into increased pressure on pension systems, healthcare services, and the availability of human resources, according to ELSTAT.
