National Bank of Greece: Infrastructure is the real limit of Greek tourism 

The Greek tourism model is entering a phase of stress, not due to a weakening of international demand, but because of the growing gap between the pace of tourism growth and the capacity of infrastructure. This emerges from an analysis by the National Bank of Greece presented at the Annual Conference of SETE, highlighting infrastructure as the decisive factor for the sustainability of the next phase.

According to the data presented by Jessie Voumaki, Deputy Director of Economic Analysis at the National Bank of Greece, Greece maintains a 2.5% share of global inbound arrivals, recording one of the strongest market share increases in the Mediterranean over the past decade. Demand remains consistently strong, with prospects for further growth through 2040, particularly from non-European markets—an evolution that could potentially contribute to the gradual easing of seasonality.

Based on the estimates presented, Greece could maintain its 2.5% share of global tourism through 2040, absorbing significantly more visitors—up to 55 million non-cruise arrivals—and increasing travel receipts by €14 billion to €36 billion, without further burdening the already pressured summer months. The prerequisite, however, is clear: infrastructure must keep pace with tourism growth.

Over the past decade, however, the two have not moved in tandem. In real terms and excluding the impact of inflation, tourism activity recovered at a significantly faster rate than investment in core infrastructure. The private tourism sector moved aggressively, with luxury beds increasing their share to 56% from 40% in 2010, and short-term rentals exceeding 1 million beds. By contrast, investment in infrastructure—energy, water supply, waste management, local transport and public administration—lagged significantly during the 2010–2019 period, with only partial recovery after 2020. An exception was air transport, where airport upgrades and increased flight connectivity were recorded.

This divergence is most evident in the Greek islands, which account for 44% of the country’s total tourism and 11% of global island tourism, with seven islands ranking in the global Top 30.

According to the analysis, a gradual smoothing of seasonality—extending tourism activity from two to six months—could allow the absorption of a larger volume of visitors without a corresponding strain on peak periods.

The cost of this transition, however, remains a critical issue. For the Greek islands, annual infrastructure financing needs are estimated at approximately €2–2.3 billion, raising the question of how costs should be fairly distributed among residents, businesses, visitors and the state.

As emphasized, Greece’s ability to accommodate more tourists in the future no longer depends on demand, but on spatial planning, institutional coordination and stable infrastructure financing. Without this transition, quantitative growth risks turning into a source of pressure rather than a driver of sustainable development.