The global travel industry is on the cusp of unprecedented growth, as according to a recent analysis by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), leisure travel spending is expected to triple, from $5 trillion in 2024 to approximately $15 trillion by 2040.
These are growth rates that surpass even dynamic industries such as pharmaceuticals or fashion, driven by emerging markets, the evolution of the traveler profile, and a cultural shift in favor of experiences over the acquisition of material goods.
Emerging markets in the spotlight
While the US and Europe have traditionally led the way in leisure tourism, the future seems to be shifting towards emerging markets such as China, India and Saudi Arabia. The growing middle class in these countries is fueling demand, with China expected to become the world’s largest player in tourism spending, with annual growth of over 10%.
Notably, around 70% of travellers from these regions combine leisure and business travel, unlike the US, where this trend is less widespread. This is a clear indication that travel is becoming an integral part of everyday life in emerging markets.
While domestic travel still dominates, international leisure is growing rapidly. Spending on international leisure travel is estimated to increase from 424 billion $1.4 trillion in 2024 to about $1.4 trillion in 2040, a 200% increase.
The new face of the traveler
The modern traveler is no longer a homogeneous profile but a mosaic of different categories:
Millennials and Generation Z (tech-savvy, experience-oriented, and less brand-loyal) are the driving forces of the market.
Multigenerational travel experiences (with families of different ages traveling together) are growing in countries such as Vietnam, India, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, with about 10% of travelers looking for solutions that meet different needs and interests.
Solo travel has gone from niche to mainstream, with 18%-39% of travelers choosing it. Women and Gen Z show a particular preference. These travelers are looking for urban experiences, cultural and historical destinations, as well as wellness and spiritual escapes, eschewing the classic “sun and sea”.
The need for authentic experiences and connection with like-minded people is fundamentally changing destination promotion strategies.
The time is now
Despite risks such as geopolitical tensions or potential trade wars, the travel industry is showing remarkable resilience. BCG notes a strong “Carpe Diem” (seize the day) mood, leading to last-minute bookings and an emphasis on living experiences even in the midst of economic uncertainties.
The desire for meaningful memories continues to fuel demand, with a clear shift from material goods to adventures and experiences.
Opportunities and challenges
The prospect of a global tourism industry worth 15 trillion dollars by 2040 brings enormous opportunities but also serious challenges:
Destinations and businesses must adapt to the needs of Millennials, Gen Z, multigenerational groups, and solo travelers.
Digital tools, authenticity, and inclusive experiences will be key elements of success.
Emerging markets with their growing middle classes offer a model for the future, with countries like China and India shaping new travel behaviors.
