The global travel industry is on the cusp of unprecedented growth, with a recent analysis by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicting that leisure travel spending will triple from $5 trillion in 2024 to nearly $15 trillion by 2040.
This growth rate is outpacing even dynamic industries such as pharmaceuticals or fashion, driven by emerging markets, changing traveler profiles, and a cultural shift towards experiences over material goods.
Emerging markets in the spotlight
While the US and Europe have traditionally led the way in leisure tourism, the future seems to be shifting towards emerging markets such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia. The growing middle class in these countries is fueling demand, with China expected to become the world’s largest player in tourism spending, growing at over 10% annually.
Notably, around 70% of travelers from these regions combine leisure and business travel, unlike the US, where this trend is less prevalent. This is a clear indication that travel is becoming an integral part of everyday life in emerging markets.
While domestic travel continues to dominate, international leisure is growing rapidly. Spending on international leisure travel is estimated to grow from $424 billion in 2024 to around $1.4 trillion in 2040, a 200% increase.
The new face of the traveler
The modern traveler is no longer a homogeneous profile but a mosaic of different categories:
Millennials and Generation Z (tech-savvy, with an emphasis on experience and less brand loyalty) are the driving forces of the market.
Multigenerational travel experiences (with families of different ages traveling together) are growing in countries such as Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, with around 10% of travelers looking for solutions that cover different needs and interests.
Solo travel has gone from niche to mainstream, with 18%-39% of travelers choosing it. Women and Gen Z show a particular preference. These travelers are looking for urban experiences, cultural and historical destinations, but also wellness and spiritual escapes, eschewing the classic “sun and sea”.
The need for authentic experiences and connections with like-minded people is fundamentally changing destination marketing strategies.
The time is now
Despite risks such as geopolitical tensions or potential trade wars, the travel industry is showing remarkable resilience. BCG notes a strong “Carpe Diem” (seize the day) mood, leading to last-minute bookings and an emphasis on experiencing even in the midst of economic uncertainty.
The desire for meaningful memories continues to fuel demand, with a clear shift from material goods to adventures and experiences.
Opportunities and challenges
The prospect of a $15 trillion global tourism industry by 2040 brings enormous opportunities but also serious challenges:
Destinations and businesses must adapt to the needs of Millennials, Gen Z, multigenerational groups, and solo travelers.
Digital tools, authenticity, and inclusive experiences will be key elements of success.
Emerging markets with their growing middle classes offer a model for the future, with countries like China and India shaping new travel behaviors.
