“Either we will have a series of aftershocks, that is, magnitudes that will be in the order of 4.5 to 4.7 at most last night at 19:45 or we will have a larger seismic tremor that can cause a tsunami and some volcanic eruption. So we are preparing for these scenarios,” said the Director of Research of the Athens Geodynamic Institute, Thanasis Ganas, who participated in yesterday’s meeting under the Prime Minister, speaking on the First Program 91.6 and 105.8 and on the show “Morning Party” with Katerina Sereti and Dionysis Hatzimichalis.
“We do not yet know how this sequence will evolve off Santorini and between the island of Santorini and Anydros, so we must wait a little longer to see the evolution of the phenomenon,” Mr. Ganas pointed out, however, he noted that there must be preparedness for the adverse scenario, so all the effort of the state and scientists is to prepare the state to face an adverse scenario, which includes the excitation of the volcano.
15 volcanic centers at the bottom
“Between Santorini, which is Thira, Thirasia, which is the complex known as Kamenes, which we last had the last eruption in 1950 and the last crisis in 2011, and the rocky islet of Anydros, there are another 15 volcanic centers at the bottom. The largest of these is Kolumbo, which is 8 kilometers northeast. So, Colombo is active, very active. The latest data shows an increase in gases, so we have to pay attention to see how this will develop. That is why new measurements will be made today and tomorrow in the area, new seismographs will be added and new gas recordings will be made. The other phenomenon is that we have a shift in the sequence of the seismic sequence from the Santorini caldera to the northeast, with thousands of small earthquakes there yesterday we had 12 tremors above 4, which means that there is an intense development now and there we have our attention to see how this situation will develop, that is if we will have continuous such tremors. It is good that from last night until this morning we did not have anything above 4, that is good and to prepare if there is something bigger how this will be dealt with”, Mr. Ganas stated characteristically.
“At the moment we know the faults in the area. There is a trench, to explain in geological terms, between Santorini and Amorgos. The last and largest earthquake occurred in 1956 with a magnitude of 7.5 plus or minus 0.2,” noted Mr. Ganas.
There is an estimate that we will not have an earthquake above 6 on the Richter scale
Asked how the scientific opinion that a larger earthquake would not exceed magnitude 6 if it occurred arises, Mr. Ganas gave the following explanation.
“It arose from the existence of faults on the seabed between Amorgos and Santorini, which have a length. The length of the fault defines its potential. There is an estimate that we will not have an earthquake above 6. However, an earthquake between 5 and 6 may occur. If this earthquake occurs, it may create a landslide which may create a tsunami. So this is a possible scenario. However, it is not more likely. The most likely scenario is that this sequence will evolve without further escalation.”
Responding to the question of whether the phenomenon so far could belong to a pre-seismic sequence, Mr. Ganas said that it is one of two scenarios.
“I recall last year in 2021 in Arkalochori, Crete, in Kastelli, where we had earthquakes of magnitude 3 and 4 for months that ultimately led to the large earthquake of 5.9 on September 27. The second is to have a series of earthquakes. But now what we know is that there is a volcanic crisis, a crisis started on August 1, and August 2 with our data, then there began to be an expansion of the volcano in the caldera and we have no data on what is happening in the underwater space. We do not know what is happening there. It is more likely that we will also have deformation of the bottom soil there. And so this seismicity is related to the rise of magma. It is caused by this. The earthquakes there are tectonic but at the moment they are caused because at a depth of several kilometers, about 12-20 kilometers, there is a magma chamber that feeds both active volcanoes of Santorini and Colombo. So this is the sudden rise of magma in the last six months that leads to one, to one genesis of hundreds and thousands of micro-earthquakes”.
It cannot be said with certainty how likely it is that we will have an eruption of the volcano, according to Mr. Gana.
“It is not possible to make a forecast at this time with the data we have. That is why I spoke about the two scenarios. So we must be prepared. We need to be calm. We will face it no matter what. And I remind you that the last time in 2011-2012 we had such a volcanic crisis, but it did not lead to an eruption,” he added.
“Scientifically, there cannot be any assurance at this time. What we can say is that there should be no panic. There is no need to panic. Residents have already received instructions from the Civil Protection, there has already been extensive information from the media and local and municipal authorities and there is no reason to panic. We need to be calm. Now we will see how it will develop and we will act accordingly. What you and the listeners need to know is that measures are being taken for all possible scenarios,” Mr. Ganas concluded.
Source: ertnews,gr
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