Global demand for air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), rose by just 2.6% compared to June 2024 — the lowest annual growth in months. At the same time, available seat capacity (ASK) increased by 3.4%, outpacing demand and leading to a decline in the global load factor by 0.6 percentage points to 84.5%.
“This slowdown mainly reflects the impact of the military conflict in the Middle East,” commented Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “However, load factors remain extremely high and the summer outlook remains steady.”
International Travel: Selective Recovery
International passenger traffic rose by 3.2% year-over-year, but all regions recorded decreases in load factors as supply outpaced demand:
Asia-Pacific: Led growth with a 7.2% rise in demand, driven by ongoing tourism momentum and increasing mobility in China and India. Load factor slightly declined to 82.9%.
Europe: Demand increased by 2.8%, with a high load factor of 87.4%, although down 0.4 percentage points.
Latin America: Saw a 9.3% jump in demand, but an excessive capacity increase (+11.8%) led to a 1.9-point drop in load factor.
Middle East: Hit by geopolitical tensions, demand dropped 0.4%, with steep declines on routes to the U.S. (-7.0%) and Europe (-4.4%).
Africa: Experienced a mild decline in demand (-0.3%), with load factor falling to 74.6%, likely due to strong competition from European and Middle Eastern carriers.
North America: The only developed market with a drop in international demand (-0.3%). Load factor fell significantly to 86.9% (-2.2 points).
Domestic Travel: Mixed Results and Surprises
Overall, domestic passenger traffic increased by 1.6%, with the global load factor at 84.7% (-0.4 points). However, country-by-country performance varied widely:
Brazil: Impressive growth in demand (+14.7%) and capacity (+17%), but load factor declined by 1.7 points.
China: Continued strength with 3.8% demand growth and a 0.6-point increase in load factor.
India: Despite 5.4% growth in demand, load factor dropped 2.9 points due to faster capacity expansion (+9%).
Japan: Positive performance with 2.9% demand growth and a 2.3-point increase in load factor.
USA: Marginal demand growth (+0.1%) — the first after four months of stagnation — with a drop in load factor to 86% (-1.5 points).
Australia: Modest demand improvement (+0.9%) and load factor at 81.1%.
Outlook: Stabilization Ahead of August
Despite the slowdown in June, forecasts for August remain cautiously optimistic. Scheduled global capacity growth is limited to 1.8%, which IATA expects will help maintain load factors near the historic highs of recent months.
This stabilization trend reflects a broader shift from the intense post-pandemic recovery phase to a more mature stage of growth — with geopolitical instability, fuel prices, and economic uncertainty once again becoming central concerns for the aviation industry.
