Italy, with its famous coastlines from the craggy cliffs of Amalfi to the blue bays of Sardinia, faces a threatening future: by 2050, almost a fifth of its beaches could disappear due to rising sea levels and erosion. This worrying scenario is presented in the new study “Sunken Landscapes” by the Italian Geographical Society (IGS), which describes a prospect of dramatic changes to the country’s 8,000-kilometer coastline.
According to the models used in the study, if no immediate and substantial adaptation measures are taken, up to 45% of Italian beaches could be lost by the end of the century, depending on the level of emissions and the coastal management policy.
The causes of the crisis
Climate change is the root cause of the problem. The increase in ocean temperatures is causing the expansion of waters and the rise in sea levels, while at the same time the extreme weather events that erode the coasts are intensified. “The Italian coasts are extremely exposed due to their low morphology and intense human activity,” the report points out, calculating that even a rise in the level of 0.3 to 1 meter by 2100 could flood vast areas.
But nature is not the only one to blame. The human factor has worsened the situation. Tourism, which generates over €200 billion a year, has led to the overbuilding of sensitive coastal areas with hotels, coastal roads and infrastructure that hinder the natural replenishment of sand. At the same time, artificial interventions – such as breakwaters and sea barriers – often worsen erosion in neighboring areas.
The “hotspots”
The northern Adriatic is particularly vulnerable, where tourist areas such as Rimini and Lido di Jesolo are threatened by erosion. Serious problems are also found on the Gargano peninsula in Puglia, in Tuscany (Maremma), in Lazio and in the Gulf of Naples. Even Sardinia is at risk, with areas around Cagliari and Oristano predicted to suffer significant soil loss.
In the Po Delta, one of the most productive agricultural areas in Europe, salinization of the soil due to sea intrusion threatens 10% of Italy’s arable land, especially the rice fields that produce the famous arborio rice. The loss of lagoons and wetlands, such as those in Venice, will have serious environmental and economic consequences.
The social and economic impact
The study estimates that around 800,000 residents – mainly in coastal communities of fishermen and small entrepreneurs – may have to move. At the same time, 50% of the country’s port infrastructure is in high-risk zones, threatening critical commercial activities in ports such as Genoa, Trieste and Bari.
Proposals for action
The IGS proposes the “renaturalization” of the coast – the restoration of natural barriers such as dunes, reefs and wetlands that can act as natural defenses. It also recommends a gradual retreat of construction from the coast and stricter spatial planning, with incentives for sustainable forms of tourism.
Italy, the report notes, has significant resources at its disposal from the European Green Deal and the National Recovery Plan (PNRR) to finance such actions. But time is the greatest enemy. “The decisions taken over the next decade will determine whether the Italian coast remains a symbol of natural beauty or if it is lost beneath the waves,” the study concludes.
