In the third quarter of this year, the French economy showed an unexpected acceleration, with GDP growing by 0.5%, according to the first estimates of the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.
This performance exceeded the forecasts of both the Institute and the Bank of France by 0.2 percentage points. It is noted that in the second quarter of the year, growth was limited to 0.3%.
Despite the climate of political and fiscal uncertainty, as well as international tensions, growth is proving more resilient than expected. The Minister of Economy and Finance, Roland Lescure, attributed this success to the investment and export activity of French companies. At the same time, he underlined the importance of the rapid approval of the 2026 budget in order to maintain market confidence.
By the end of September, growth had already reached 0.8%, exceeding the government’s forecasts for 2025 by 0.1 point. According to economists, the year could end with growth of 0.8% or even slightly higher, which could reduce the budget deficit below the projected 5.4% of GDP. In addition, 2026 could start with a positive rate of 0.5%, if the momentum is maintained.
According to the Institute, final domestic demand increased, but the main driver of growth was foreign trade, which contributed 0.9 points to GDP. Exports increased by 2.2%, particularly in the aerospace and shipbuilding sectors, while imports fell, leading to a reduction in inventories.
Business investment showed an unexpected recovery of 0.9%, mainly thanks to digitalization and the recovery of the construction sector. The production of goods and services increased by 0.8%, driven by the manufacturing industry, confirming the positive course of economic activity. In contrast, household consumption remained almost stagnant (+0.1%), with food purchases decreasing, despite low inflation.
Economic analysts note that the momentum of the strengthening of the growth rate of the French economy is indeed an unexpected and better-than-expected performance. However, they continue to characterize it as moderate and not particularly stable, as it is based mainly on the improvement in exports and less on the increase in consumption and investment. Furthermore, they find that it remains vulnerable to external and internal risks (international trade, political instability, fiscal pressure), factors that can halt the recovery path.
The Bank of France’s forecasts are also in line with this, estimating that the growth rate for 2025-2026 will be moderate (0.6-1%), raising the question of whether and to what extent the dynamic acceleration observed in the third quarter of 2025 can be maintained.
(*) The information comes from the Office of Economic and Commercial Affairs in Paris.
