Global tourism is on a historic growth trajectory, with international arrivals expected to exceed 2 billion by 2030 and reach 2.5 billion by 2035, according to a report by Oxford Economics and TOURISE. Today, the number of arrivals is around 1.5 billion annually, already surpassing the record set in 2019.
The report attributes this rise to a strong recovery in travel spending, which now accounts for over 9% of global consumer spending, higher than the long-term average. In 2025 alone, international overnight stays increased by 3%, reaching levels 17% higher than in 2019, while total international travel activity increased by 6%, with Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Africa recording the fastest growth rates.
Average trip duration and spend per trip remain elevated, showing that travelers are investing more in long-term experiences. Cruises are emerging as a dynamic pillar of the recovery, with over 38 million passengers expected this year and the global fleet growing by 25% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, the study predicts the entry of 200 million new households into the “travel class” over the next decade, mainly from China and India, which will drastically strengthen the middle class of regular travelers.
China is expected to surpass the US as the largest leisure market by 2030, spending $235 billion, up $100 billion from 2019.
Meanwhile, India is set to become the world’s fourth-largest travel market by 2025, with its total travel spending set to double by 2030.
This recovery is also being accompanied by an unprecedented wave of investment. More than 500,000 new hotel rooms are expected to open by 2025, with another 1 million under construction.
In the airline industry, orders have already been placed for 15,000 new aircraft worldwide, increasing the fleet by about 33%. Middle Eastern airlines lead the way, with Emirates, Qatar and Etihad all having over 500 new aircraft on order, while Riyadh Air, Saudia and Flynas have another 450 in development.
The Middle East region itself is showing the biggest growth globally, with Saudi Arabia recording a spectacular increase in arrivals thanks to investments in connectivity, technology and themed projects such as Diriyah and Qiddiya. Indicatively, the upcoming GCC Single Visa will allow free movement between Gulf countries and is estimated to add 5 million additional travelers annually, increasing overall demand by 4%.
At the policy level, the report highlights that visa facilitation increases arrivals by 13 to 26%, while the use of biometric identification and artificial intelligence technologies is expected to significantly improve the traveler experience. At the same time, destinations that invest in “smart” borders and sustainable practices gain a comparative advantage, as 60% of travelers declare themselves aware of the environmental impacts of tourism.
